Tag Archives: analysis

TREE TALES – METAMORPHOSIS OF THE TREE IN SOUTH ASIAN LITERATURE

Paper presented at the SAARC Literature Festival in Lucknow on 16th March 2012.

Introduction

Shor se chidiyon ke tang aa kar, pairh tou mein ne kaat diya tha

Ab jab kirnain koond rehi hain, sehn mein saaya dhund reha hun.

 

When noisy birds brought out my ire, I raised my arm and felled the tree,

And now when sunlight rains down on me, in the courtyard I search for shade.

(Adapted translation)

 

The tropical region brings with it images of warm climate, humid weather and rainforests. South Asia, lying in the close proximity of the subtropical region, conjures up similar associations. Much of these have come down to us over the centuries and Man has appeared to have a very close connection with trees. The image may be one of a disciple sitting underneath a tree to receive instruction, a holy man meditating, a weary conqueror resting, mischievous youngsters playing hide and seek in the gardeners’ prized fruit trees, a mynah or a koel (cuckoo) cooing in the shade, or even the gruesome image of a body hanging from the branches for all wayfarers to see and beware of the hand of justice. Symbolically then, in literary thought it is the tree that is timeless and a silent witness to all that goes on in the travails of Time and what it gives and takes.

In earlier days, the tree was the symbol of patience and tolerance. As man and nature learned to coexist side by side, man learned that he could not live without the trees that clumped together in the form of forests or groves and provided him with sustenance and a natural cover for animal life within it as well as firewood. Through the very delicate thread that binds the community of man with the community of plant and animal life, we can explore the impact this has on the natural environment as a whole and in turn on the writing that stems from its subtle influence. The objective of this paper is to understand this link and to delve into the way this may have evolved over time, laying out the ground for future symbolic contexts.

 

  

The tree as a symbol in the rural versus urban paradigm shift

Some of the earliest tree symbols come from religious texts and the image of the disciple learning from the master and meditating under a tree or even the evil serpent lurking within the boughs of the tree. Evil and good both seem to go hand in hand. The fruit of the tree may be life giving to a wayfarer or may be the taker of life. This battle between good and evil seems to be at its most evident when seen in the context of literature depicting rural traditions rather than urban ones. Early literature of the subcontinent depicts this link as spiritual and a connection between man and God. Tree worship dates back to early days in the Indian peninsula (Agrawala, 1970) and these temples of nature are said to be adorned by the presence of gods and goddesses. While the neem, peepul, banyan and wood apple retain their holiness in the political boundaries of what is now known as India (Amrita, 1999), the plantain groves as a cult have their ethnographical significance in Bengal (Bhattacharya, 1950) and numerous giant cypress trees around Bhutan have their own tales to tell (Tshering, 2011). The man is shown as a tree growing in Brahma or the universe being like an inverted tree with its roots in the sky and the branches below – the eternal fig tree as defined formally in the Upanishads (Eliade, 1996). 

Zimmer (1972) in his analysis of Indian mythological symbols talks about three trees of symbolic significance born soon after the creation of the world underneath which the ‘Blessed one’ carried out meditation for seven days each – firstly under the Bo tree or the Bodhi ‘Tree of Enlightenment’ on the banks of the river Nairanjana, secondly the great banyan tree called ‘The Tree of the Goatherd’ and lastly the third great tree called ‘The tree of the serpent King, Muchalinda’. Still other sources name five sacred trees or the Panchavati of India as Peepul, Banyan, Indian gooseberry, Bengal Quince and Asoka (Hegde and Patil, 1999). No matter what the type, the fact that trees have been held in reverence for centuries past in the Indian subcontinent is important, as regards current literary thought. It is this fact that makes the current trend of cropping of trees and butchering mature trees all the more tragic.

History also ascribes trees of oracular properties to the subcontinent. Tales from the days of Alexander the Great have been found to coincide with the trees on Harappan civilization seals and show strange fruit bearing trees usually surrounding the figure of a female deity or serpents coiled within the trunk form (Lannoy, 1974).

The tree as a singular entity is the subject of many short stories. It is depicted as a symbol of life in stories such as ‘The Peepul tree’ (1958) by Zebunnissa Hamidullah where the image of a woman dubbed as barren in a village in Bengal is contrasted starkly to the mango groves ripe with fruit through which she weaves her way, unknown to the villagers, to approach a distant ‘mighty’, ‘old’, ‘twisted’ and ‘majestic’ Peepul tree so she may have her hearts’ desire – a son for whom she ties a red cloth to its branches. This linking of the tree with the spiritual realm is by no means a new idea. Rabindranath Tagore in ‘Stray Birds’, found in the tree form a similar prayer like stance:

 

The trees come up to my window like the yearning voice of the dumb earth

Be still, my heart, these great trees are prayers.

 

In Bhutanese literature, the story of the four harmonious friends in the Jataka tales is said to have been recounted by Buddha as a fable to help decide the question of the rights given to seniors. Here we find a Banyan tree at the centre of the story that eventually helps the friends decide the eldest. The tree once again proves its timelessness (Bhutan Journals).

Strength, one of the known and well worked out themes of the lone tree in literature also finds its expression in the literature of the subcontinent. ‘The Neem Tree’ is a poem by the German – Pakistani writer Elsa Kazi written before her death in 1967 that shows this quality of the tree and stands an ardent prayer for Man to emulate many of the characteristics shown by the Neem tree.

 

‘How strong you are, how unafraid,

How green the leaves inspite of all

The mid-day flames that burning fall

Upon thy unprotected head…

Could man be as bold as thou and rise

Above the earth, with the sheltering arm

To save the suffering ones from harm,

From sorrows, poverty and vice

Through sacrifice.’

 

Strength, being thus adorned by the upright neem tree, there is little else more tragic than the image of ‘A Fallen Tree’. The poetry of Patrick Fernando of Sri Lanka, himself a keen gardener, bears witness to the giant tree that ‘over-lorded all’, while nature watches helplessly and ‘all the rest stand muted at the giant’s fall’ (Bhushan, 2011). In his work, especially his tragic verse, we see the effects of the perceived loss of nature at its best on a sensitive mind, rendered even more sensitive by the untamed wild beauty of the greenery which influenced it.

The tree metaphor was also taken to be a sinewy path of societal ills with the roots deep down in the passages of shadowy history. Several titles used this connotation as an apt metaphor for their titles. An example, Vishabriksha (The Poison Tree) by Bankim Chandra Chattopadhyay (1873) has little to do with plant life of any kind but the title has questions of polygamy and widow remarriage woven into it. Again, the stance here remains predominantly rural rather than urban. The symbolism retains its pastoral roots.

The red of the life blood strikes one as prominent in both cases of life and death. The writer, Zebunnissa Hamidullah (1958), sketches the macabre picture of the tree as a symbol of death in ‘The Wonder Bloom’ the subject of which is a short stumpy tree known to bloom with a crimson flower only when a young newly married woman is buried alive underneath it.

 

 The house, the tree and the person: a balanced triad

The natural environment is limitless, and trees of all kinds dot the earth. Literature also contains endless instances where trees have been mentioned both symbolically and as a frame of reference for the creation of the atmosphere. This paper however concerns itself not as much with the natural terrain but with the triad of man, his home and the tree within and without. In this context it is the urban life that affords the most graphic examples of the metamorphosis of the tree over time.

South Asian literature is heavily influenced by the eras through which it passes. As such, in an earlier age when electricity and all the modern gadgets that come with it, were unheard of, human life even in the cities followed a pastoral trend. People adjusted their lifestyle according to the seasons. It was the courtyard that was the focal point of the household with most activities taking place in the open under the shelter of a large and shady tree, usually either neem or peepul. In Fuvahmulah in the Maldives, literary accounts hold that nearly every household in well established neighbourhoods has at least one mango tree or nearby groves of Areca nut trees and breadfruit trees. In the Indo-Pak region, Neem trees in particular, held the added attraction of medicinal value along with shade.  Innumerable accounts of this can be gleaned from various literary sources but one of the richest lifestyle previews can be found in Ujraa Dayaar, by Shahid Ahmed Dehlvi (1967), a book that looks particularly at the culture of Delhi before the riots in 1857 and since then. The images vary from young girls enjoying on swings hanging from the boughs to dry leaves being swept regularly before evening and the return of the men folk. While being near trees after dusk was not encouraged in superstitious mindsets, warm nights often brought with them, the idyllic scene of a grandmother concocting fairy tales for the younger ones with the tree branches forming the backdrop for many a monster or safe fairytale haven of princes as the need demanded it. In poorer households too, lack of space did not hinder the plantation of at least one tree outside the household whose overhanging branches provided just the right amount of shade at the entrance.

Views of the city as shown in books such as Ujraa Dayaar (1967) are filled with images of trees with the life of Man closely connected with seasonal changes and festivals to appreciate these changes being the order of the day. Hence we have instances where mangoes are plucked fresh from the trees while on a picnic and sights and sounds of the monsoon are welcomed by young girls singing and swinging together on ropes tied to sturdy tree branches.

As can be gleaned from these instances, the triad then till technological advancement took over our hearts and minds, was one of perfect harmony where the person lives in sync with natural elements – the tree, within the sphere of the material elements – his home. Architecturally and socially, it helped preserve the balance by bringing natural elements in context and harbouring a sense of importance for the preservation of this triad. However, with changes in lifestyle, the triad is currently in a state of imbalance. This has affected the mindset of the populace and the symbolism that surrounds the image of the tree.

  

Modern urban life and the harbingers of change

 

Various regions of South Asia each have harboured their own symbols and house – tree – person triads for centuries. Whether we analyse the simplicity inherent in the banana tree from the North East of the region and the mango tree in Southern climes acting as both nourishment and for practical purposes or the religious symbolism of the Peepul tree or even the medical properties of the Neem tree worshipped along with many others (Ahmed, 1995 and Amirthalingam, 2001), it has been the tree itself that has given man’s life some anchor. This can also be seen from the various illustrations presented here.

With the passage of time as the effects of industrialization and technology seep in to the suburbs and from then on to the villages, we see and hear less of the tree metaphor in current literary titles. Instead, the ‘roads’ seem to be the new urban metaphor where man made elements seem to have taken precedence over the natural ones. With the trees, we must also bid farewell it seems to the tales being spun around the courtyards as there are few to speak of in the modern short story. The friendly chirruping sounds of birds too seem to belong to older literature of the past. The writer writing from life is less likely to find enough space for this old comrade as the population explosion fleshes out the rooms and the triad retains only its duo – man and the space he lives in. As the great outdoors serves as a backdrop rather than the space he lives in, in the urban context the literary canvas recedes and only in rural spheres do fields, orchards and greens take on more than just filler roles.

The change then is as much inside as it is outside in the community man lives in. While nature remains unchanged, it is the perception of man that changes his views of the environment. The importance of trees and in some cases their sacred value is intact, yet the ecological and literary bonds are not as strong as they once were. In part this can be attributed to the loosening of associations and the overall lifestyle changes. Where once the romantically inclined chose couplets where the cooing of birds in shady groves constituted the greatest degree of bliss, the practice shows a very obvious downward trend with the passage of time.

 

Conclusion

As far as the natural habitat is concerned, the future is a word rich in conservative predilection. It is not just the literary scene that is becoming bereft of trees and the feathered friends that dwell on them, but the mental set can be seen to change the on the ground realities as well. The removal of the trees from within our homes disturbs the natural triad and takes man away from nature. Future generations grow up with an apathy marked by their very unnatural leanings towards a tradition of practicality and mechanistic materialism rather than moderate naturalism of the pastoral that was the treasure of our ancestral roots. Take any modern city today and the voices of environmentalists will be heard protesting loudly against senseless tree cutting. As a case in point, two major cities of Pakistan have fallen prey to this widespread tree cutting in the name of traffic and security. The canal road in Lahore may be robbed of nearly 10,000 mature trees by 2012 pending a court agreement while earlier Islamabad has gone through a similar cropping of its tree lined face. Can we hope that future story tellers and poets will preserve these details in their works? Will the coming generations ever know the grandeur of what was? When imbibing ideas from the environment who can guarantee that the ‘environment’ will stay unblemished for posterity? These are important questions that go beyond the idea of art for arts’ sake. Perhaps writers have a role to play after all in preserving the all that can be called natural in the ‘environment’ and also of making sure that their voice is heard. The trees and their dwellers, yet remain voiceless.

 

            Iss baar jo eendhan ke liay kat ke gira hai

            Chidiyon ko bada pyar tha us boorhay shajar se.

 

            The one that has fallen in the name of fuel,

            Was the old tree beloved of the birds.

Defining the Sufi – Heart and Soul

 

Intoxicated by the Wine of Love.

From each a mystic silence Love demands.

What do all seek so earnestly? ‘Tis Love.

What do they whisper to each other? Love.

Love is the subject of their inmost thoughts.

In Love no longer ‘thou’ and ‘I’ exist,

For Self has passed away in the Beloved.

Now will I draw aside the veil from Love,

And in the temple of mine inmost soul,

Behold the Friend; Incomparable Love.

He who would know the secret of both worlds,

Will find the secret of them both, is Love.

 

Fariduddin Attar – Translation by Margaret Smith

 

In the beginning there was Love.

Love, light, longing and the dearly Beloved – the Friend of all. All those who love
Him. Sufism enshrines itself as a form of expressing an ancient Covenant: the
Sufis being friends of Allah who strive to leave worldly desires behind and show loyalty to their beloved by engaging in perpetual ‘remembrance’ and ‘zikr’. Synonymous with the ideals of higher ecstatic ‘states’ or ‘ahwal’, the heart of the Sufi longs for final ‘survival’ that is ‘baq’a’ of his ideals.

Sufism is not a simple word to define. Its forms are culturally determined while its traditions have undergone transformations through the centuries and the various nations who came in contact with it. Perhaps it would be simpler to say what it is not.

It is not a form of Islam or a derivative of the Holy Qura’an but there is no doubt that it was an important means of bringing the masses closer to Islam in early days. Sufis were initially approached with something between awe, curiosity and ridicule and later as their influence grew, they managed to capture more than just attention. They captured and captivated hearts.

Sufism cannot even be defined as a religion. Unlike structured religions, while it has a ‘pathway’ or ‘tariqa’ it does not have a single rigid doctrine. Its followers have their own brotherhoods and while they are divided in spirit and practices, their object is the same – the love of Allah.

It is also not a ‘union with God’ as many sources claim, as it gives the idea of ‘the
realization of God’s uniqueness’ rather than a blending or forging. Most Sufis reject the idea of finding Allah within oneself. They rather view the contemplation and appreciation of His beautiful creations as a means of reaching Him.

Some sources have shown the influence of Christian, Hindu practices on Sufism and said that it is an evolution of the desire to mould the oft viewed stern Islamic practices and provide a softer outlook. Yet, there is a major difference. The historical context shows that while the Sufis may have indulged in seemingly libertine practices, they never were dubbed as clergy, or believed in the trinity or in incarnation. Much has been lost in translation. Julian Baldick, the author of several books on Comparative Religion refers to the word ‘Saint’ which, according to him, has been liberally used in translation by British writers for Muslim mystics. While the term has a completely different connotation of heroic piety in Christianity, the closest counterpart is ‘Wali Allah’ which means ‘friend of Allah’ and the patron of those at a lower level of contemplation of His supremacy.

Another reference looks at the etymological roots of the word Sufi, calling it the Islamic continuation of Greek philosophy or the Sophists. There is incidentally quite a bit in common between both Sophists and Sufis. Both strove to teach and were elitist in nature. However, that is where the similarity ends. While Sophists
never tried to reach the masses and remained in minority, rejecting the common’
man, the Sufis did just the opposite by making sure that their message was
comprehensible to all.

An offshoot sometimes confused with the Sufis, takes the form of a Hellenized Islamic Philosophy and is called ‘Hikmat al Ishraq’ or the wisdom of Oriental Illumination. Here the contextual difference is vast. The Sufis, immersed in their ideal of togetherness or a strong bond with the Creator and lacking interest in worldly affairs, have no desire for immediate escape either. The other side lacks interest in attaining the love of the Creator and instead focuses on an ordered perception of the Universe dominated by a mysterious Angel. Their escapist ideology, of ascension and integration into space by means of purifying their thought to gain heights of Spiritual mastery not apparent to other mortals, deviates far from simplistic Sufi notions of life.

So then, what is Sufism and what do the Sufis themselves have to offer as an
explanation. The answer lies in the metaphorical content of their sayings and
writings. Sufism is a mystical tradition that has been taken as one of the highest forms of living the ideal of a life filled with ‘tasawwuf’. Tasawwuf – literally ‘wearing wool’ was a term initially used to pinpoint those who were not interested in the material world. Wool in its raw rough form being used to
fashion a rather crude basic tunic or garment known more for its resilience
than its comfort. According to the historian Ibn e Khaldun, “This knowledge (Tasawwuf) is a branch of the sciences of Sacred Law that originated within the Umma. From the first, the way of such people had also been considered the path of truth and guidance by the early Muslim community and its notables, of the Companions of the Prophet (Allah bless him and give him peace), those who were taught by them, and those who came after them.” Another connotation lies with the term of ‘As’hab e Sufah’ or the companions of the Prophet Muhammad (S.A.W.) who led simple lives and spent their time learning from him and in prayer.

Hence, Sufism has its leanings towards dedication with a pure heart. Be it the
soulful stirrings of poetry sublimated in ‘ishq e ilaahi’ and the ‘love of Allah’, deliberate self abasement in the slightest wrongdoing or even a bid to give up all worldly distractions, Sufism binds the Sufi heart and soul with his Maker. A bond that is only strengthened with time and the only definition it needs is ‘belief’ and ‘intent’.

 

References

Baldick, J. (2000) Mystical Islam – An Introduction to Sufism.
Tauris Parke Paperbacks. London, New York.

Keller, N. H. M. (1995) The Place of Tasawwuf in Traditional
Islamic Sciences. Retrieved from http://www.masud.co.uk/ISLAM/nuh/sufitlk.htm

Sieny, M.E. (1989) Muslim Heroes. International Islamic Publishers
Ltd. Karachi, Pakistan.

Wahiduddin. Intoxicated by the wine of love. Retrieved from http://wahiduddin.net/sufi/sufi_poetry.htm

Becoming Robert Lee Frost

Freud mentions sublimation as the primary defense of poets and prose writers alike. The defense that keeps them upright in life. Even a slight dissention would result in the convenient label of denial. However, be it the poets of the Indian subcontinent with their focus on tragic matters of the heart or poets of the west, some saying of Freud come back to haunt us. While the Romantics and the Victorian poets depict the pathos of their times and lives, American poets like Robert Lee Frost also deserve more than just a mention. His life shows much of his ‘will’ to live while his work showcases sensuality packaged in pastoral simplicity.

Frost had “miles to go” in every sense. Emotional upheavals interspersed with outstanding successes shaped his life. Born to a teaching couple on March 26, 1874, he was orphaned at 11 when his gambler, drinker and authoritarian father passed away. His married life was punctuated by frequent bouts with poverty, uncertain health, financially unproductive though creatively fruitful immigrations and tragic or unnatural deaths and institutionalisations of his children. Despite such personal turmoil, his fame and triumph of 4 Pulitzer prizes during his lifetime remains unparalleled by any other American poet. He passed away on January 29, 1963.

While his mother made Shakespeare, Wordsworth and others his fodder throughout childhood, Greek and Latin held its sway during high school, which along with an interest in botany and astronomy influenced his poetry. The psychologist William James known as the father of American psychology, however, became Frost’s ‘greatest inspiration’. This may have led to the spiritual undertones in Frost’s work and the idea of ‘will’ in his life.

For many reviewers Frost’s charm lies in his simplicity. While, Edward Thomas recognized his originality, Ezra Pound felt he knew more about farm life and effectually ‘Life’ itself after reading Frost, and Jarrell described him as the “the subtlest and saddest of poets”.

Deeper analysis reveals his subliminal sensual appeal. His formulation of the “ear” being “the only true writer and reader”, made him experiment using the “sound of sense” with vernacular speech. Another aspect of sublimation perhaps? Thus, his poetry makes demands on the reader’s vigilance for cadences and dramatic effects of silence.  He, like his ‘Oven Bird’ remained earthbound, singing of worldly matters, didactic and argumentative by turns. Overall, his witty treatment of issues in light verse composition gave a surface gloss to inopportune facets.

Among his best-known shorter poems are “Stopping by Woods on a Snowy Evening”, “Mending Wall”, “Nothing Gold Can Stay”, “Acquainted With the Night”, “The Pasture”, “Fire and Ice”, and “The Road Not Taken”.

Throughout, he astutely remained in the public eye, being feted by the literary worlds of both Boston and New York. His practice of public readings with a sprinkling of his own comments and reflections about the world served only to enhance his popularity with the masses.

Though primarily a poet, Frost was also a dramatist. When hard pressed for money he also wrote articles for poultry journals by night while working his farm by day. His letters to wife Elinor and friend Sidney Cox “Forty Years of Friendship” are in book form and served to release him after a decade from the ‘monster of egotism myth’ when his personality faced the brunt of his self-appointed biographer Thompson’s hostile pen.

Frost was prolific. Hundreds of unearthed works are still being published posthumously such as The Notebooks of Robert Frost (January 2007).

He had a “lover’s quarrel with the world” and like a lover, gave his tribute to ‘tragic America’ transformed artfully into ‘pastoral and peaceful America’.

* An abridged version of this essay has been published earlier in the box features section of Daily Dawn Newspaper, Karachi. Pakistan.

*Image courtesy: http://www.google.com.pk/imgres?imgurl=http://students.ou.edu/E/Kelly.A.Edson-1/robertfrost.jpg&imgrefurl=http://students.ou.edu/E/Kelly.A.Edson-1/project.html&usg=__kf5sCVZyyZ4SUJJgaUz4FTvqDU0=&h=258&w=258&sz=62&hl=en&start=0&zoom=1&tbnid=6xQsqEmogJQPgM:&tbnh=138&tbnw=159&ei=o5TSTaKdM5CksQOS3r2wCQ&prev=/search%3Fq%3Drobert%2Blee%2Bfrost%26hl%3Den%26sa%3DX%26rlz%3D1T4GGHP_enPK418PK418%26biw%3D1093%26bih%3D466%26tbm%3Disch%26prmd%3Divns0%2C209&itbs=1&iact=hc&vpx=844&vpy=67&dur=2675&hovh=206&hovw=206&tx=150&ty=103&page=1&ndsp=13&ved=1t:429,r:12,s:0&biw=1093&bih=466

Religion, Rushdie and the Red Rag…

Do I see a red rag?!

I have just finished reading Salman Rushdie’s article in which he is quite vociferous in denouncing Pakistan as a terrorist state and all Pakistani bureaucracy and government agencies as allies of the fundamentalists.

‘Fundamentalists? The word itself is a misnomer and a huge one at that. Islam as a religion and a way of life is based on fundamentals and if you remove those the essence is lost.

Rushdie’s sentiments are strongly pro-Indian and equally anti-Pakistan. Below the article is a stream of supportive comments from all around the world. The article in question in addition is being circulated widely amongst international facebook and twitter users. There are very few who (judging by the feedback) hold back their passions rather than leapfrogging into a dynamite like rhetoric against ‘terrorism’, jihadis, fundos, beards and the like.

Let us for a moment leave religion out of this debate. What is left then? Salman Rushdie as one human denouncing a whole country full of millions of other humans on the basis of  something that was or was not done by the ruling powers – that is shield Osama Bin Laden?

Alright, let us also suppose that they did shield him… and succeeded… on their own?

If Rushdie’s claim is correct, suddenly I feel like giving Pakistan a pat on the back! We succeeded in shielding OBL from the eyes of Big Brother? I’m dumbstruck.

Does anyone notice that the common man in Rushdie’s fantasia of a terrorist state has also been suffering due to intermittent bomb blasts and attacks? Does anyone care that several areas in the north ofPakistan had become no-go areas and that it is only recently that the army, which certain intellectuals have been denouncing repeatedly, has managed to clear those areas partially using its manpower – again the common man soldiers?

Religion happens to be one concept that ironically evokes passions in the breasts of even those who do not believe in any religion. Yet when Muslims protest against defamation of their ideals, it is taken as something akin to a stereotypical illiterate, uncouth, barbaric version of Conan the Barbarian.

Pronouncing judgement on a country never creates dialogue – it only creates hatred which in turn breeds more. Suddenly we have a rise of two clearly distinct viewpoints on the web. One professes the kill all the bearded ones hate tirade and the other sticks  to its see what they are like? – Get-them-before-they-get-you part of the conversation.

And every debate has an audience. The ‘humans’ are watching and waiting – for judgement or Judgement day…

Blowing ‘Bubbles’ in Pakistan

“…And now a bubble burst, and now a world.”

All around us in Pakistan, there is chaos waiting to happen nowadays. At times it is an accident, a politically motivated murder or even a suicide bombing. The deeper level outcome of this is at the end, the bubbling up of various aspects of the economy.

One of the implications can be directly seen in the oil and gas sector where again at present we can see a sharp incline. Petrol and gas prices increase almost every month – and the ceiling apparently has not been reached yet. There will come a time when the masses can take it no longer and perhaps this is a slump waiting to happen…

The cost of living is also high and increases by the day. The domino effect latches on to the property market where the bubbles are the most prominent. There are several who want to live in better places but do not have the buying power.

Among economic bubbles, a property bubble or real estate bubble is the inevitable product of speculative investment. It occurs cyclically in both local and global real
estate markets. Typical characteristics include rapid increases in property valuations followed by a severe ‘crash’. This occurs when prices have reached unsustainable levels relative to incomes etc.

Presently we are experiencing local bubbles or a little froth at least, in several parts of the
world including Pakistan. According to the Economist(2005), “the world wide rise in house prices is the biggest bubble in history”.

Economists have developed ratios and indicators for fair valuation of residential areas. A few indicators might be pointed out courtesy of economists striving to identify bubbles before they burst:
  1.  Bubbles can be identified by comparing current levels to previous unsustainable levels.
  2. The valuation component measures affordability relative to current prices by mainly looking at the price to income ratio that is the ratio of median house price to median familial disposable incomes.
  3. The debt component measures the debt incurred by households and bank loan accumulation by buying such property. When the ratio increases that is home ownership costs increase, households start depending on property values to service their debt or expenditure.

In case of real estate bubbles, the reality of experiencing one may not be as important as the slow and sure but difficult to identify tragedy of an impending house price crash. Some important points to keep in mind about price crashes are:

-      After a bubble, the crash is a slower process, as sellers do not sell their own homes.

-       Due to inflation in nominal terms prices stay flat for 3-5 years before a fall, which makes it trickier to spot the crash.

-       Office, hotel and retail sectors share the same trend as residential sectors.

Pakistan’s macroeconomic foundations seem shaky. Developing countries following inward growth oriented approaches have faced crashes. Growth needs to be sustained
through exports and manufacturing than an obsession with volatile property markets. The select hundred thousand of the main beneficiaries are by and large exempt from the brunt of taxation. Levying tax would surely burst the bubble, but at the same time increase affordability for the masses. Only the landowners get rich when property prices go up while a nation can get rich only when the labour prices (salaries) go up.

After all, the bigger the bubble, the harder it bursts.

Psych Speak – News n Views

Psych Speak – News n Views.